Market Blog - Written by Doug Winter on Sunday, August 15, 2010 23:27 - 9 Comments
Some Observations About the 2010 Boston ANA Show
To be perfectly frank, I hate coin show reports. I hate to write them. I hate to read them. I don’t care what restaurants a dealer went to and what they ate and I don’t really care that Dealer X spent this much money on those coins at the show. That said, I also know that the ANA is the show that everyone who didn’t attend wants to know about. So, with these people in mind, I thought I’d share a few random observations about the ANA.
On a scale of 1-10, I’d rate this show as a solid 6; possibly a 7. Overall, I’d say a was a tiny bit disappointed. I was expecting the show to be an 8 or a 9 because of the fact that it was the first ANA in Boston since 1982 and the fact that Boston is within a few hours of huge numbers of serious collectors.
I go to coin shows primarily to buy and from a buying standpoint I was reasonably pleased. I bought some great coins. These include an 1854-O double eagle in PCGS AU55, the Garrett specimen of the 1808 quarter eagle (graded AU53 by PCGS) and over fifty crusty original 19th century gold pieces, most of which have already found their way onto my website. I would have liked to buy more but, hey, that’s what I say at every show; even when I’m wondering how I’m going to sell all the great coins I just bought. And, yes, this paragraph is self-promotion.
Attendance seemed good and the mood among dealers and collectors seemed upbeat and positive. I didn’t have any little old ladies walk up to my table with a New England shilling in a cigar box (a fella can dream, can’t he?) but I was fairly pleased at the number of fresh coins that I was able to purchase on the floor.
I participated in three auctions. The Stack’s sale contained an interesting fresh deal of Liberty Head eagles and prices were amazing (more on this in a future blog). The Bowers and Merena sale was reasonably strong but prices were mainly reflective on the quality of the coins. In other words, nice coins brought good prices while schlock sold cheaply, if at all. The Heritage sale was strong although prices didn’t seem as off the charts as in years past. With the exception of the eagles in the Stack’s sale the coins brought basically what they were worth. That sounds trite but, in past ANA sales, many coins brought a lot (stress a lot) more than they were worth. A lot.
In the area of rare gold, I noticed some definite market trends. Early date (i.e., pre-1834) gold was almost non-existent. Even the low end, overpriced stragglers that had been overhanging the market seemed to have disappeared. I can’t remember an ANA at which I saw fewer early gold coins nor a major show that I purchased fewer.
There was extremely strong demand for Type One double eagles. The coins that nearly everyone seemed to want were common and somewhat better dates in AU50 and up, especially in the $2,000-7,500 price range. Demand was also strong for interesting Type Ones in the $10,000-20,000 range. Its hard to say what demand was like for expensive, really great Type Ones as there were almost none to be seen at the show.
Branch mint gold also was in demand. I bought and sold a few interesting pieces of Dahlonega at the show and had quite a few people come to my table with specific wants. I searched through dozens of dealers’ inventories in a Quest for Crust and was unable to find more than a handful of truly DWN-worthy coins.
Another area that suddenly seems strong is Carson City double eagles. I sold a number of interesting CC Twenties and was pleased at the prices they bought. I tried to buy an amazing 1872-CC in NGC MS62+ that was far and away the finest known for the date but was outbid despite figuring it for nearly six figures. Congratulations to whoever purchased this coin; it was sensational.
Off the subject of coins for a second. I hadn’t been to Boston in about a decade and it was great to return. What a fantastic city. Great places to shop, small and compact with wonderful walking, fantastic architecture; my kind of place. I was able to leave the show early one day and went to the Gardner Museum. The Rembrandt self-portrait and the two Botticellis were breathtaking, to say the least.
So, another ANA show has come and gone. After nearly 30 years of ANA’s, I don’t feel the excitement that I used to but this is clearly THE show of the year and the 2010 edition was memorable.
9 Comments
Hi Doug, Thanks for the show report. For those of us who were not able to attend you really give us a feeling of being at the show. I always like hearing what’s hot and what is not from your perspective. Keep up the show reports for those of us in Siberia south. Joey
The most noteworthy thing about that show for me is the aftermath- *most* of the newps you put up were sold even before you had pictures available. Many within hours. State of the market for premium gold?
Doug,
Another great reason to keep coming back to Rare Gold Coins! Recognized a number of familiar faces and really enjoyed meeting new ones!
What are your thoughts about including images of coins in client collections that you either previously sold @ RGC or bought as agent at auction? Perhaps you could put out a monthly call to your customers for a coin you previously handled, e.g. 1861-S $20, ask them to write to you describing the piece in their collection, then you select the one you’d like to image. Your description might include a backstory on where and how you and your client came to the piece.
Good luck!!
Bill
Doug,
Let’s focus on the 1863 Gold Dollar. OK, this coin is pretty rare. In fact, it is the single rarist gold dollar in terms of total known to exist. So, I see why it is the only Philadelphia gold dollar on your list. And, yes, I have a very nice MS64, borderline gem, for this reason. A totally random addition to my collection.
However, I could argue that this coin will always remain obscure. Who collects Philadelphia gold dollars? And then, these coins are so small that you need a magnifying glass just to appreciate them. The NGC holders (until recently) further obscure the coin. So, its demand is not bolstered by being part of a particularly popular series (unlike branch mint) or denomination. About the only thing going for it is that 1863 was during the Civil War, and a pretty interesting year (Gettysburg, Vicksburg campaigns, Emacipation Proclamation was written).
So, while it might be warehousable (is this a word?), I am dubious that it will likely every gain a lot of fame. Not until rarity, and rarity alone (not series) becomes a collection theme.
But then, that is an interesting idea. Would it fit into a list of the top liberty head coins in terms of rarity? A blog topic perhaps?
JL
I was also a bit surprized that the turnout wasn’t better. People love money, but their attention spans are getting less because of all the gadgets we use, and to collect coins requires a lot of thought, energy and money.
Plus, as an investment, it rarely does as well as the metals themselves, unless you get really lucky. Many customers have been gouged and scammed and so are leary of putting big money into rare coins unless they have a lot of excess, and know the true value of what they are buying.
Doug,
I have no concerns over the long term — there will always be a market. First of all: babyboomers will be around for another 20 or 30 years, so I am not too worried there. Second, there is the rest of the world. Folks in China and India love gold, and we have the most liquid, rational market in US gold coins. Third, there will also be more information while also greater scarcity in relation to demand. Fourth, these coins are getting older, and thus more exotic. Only issue is wealth – if there is no wealth creation, that could impact the market for any valued, scarce and non-renewable tangible asset (waterfront property, rare art, antiques and rare coins). So, if you have confidence in the global economy long term, then you are good to go in rare gold coins. Of course, you still have to follow Doug’s well-documented coin collecting rules.
JL
Another observation from the Long Beach show: I’d estimate that close to 90% of all United States gold coins, regardless of denomination or price level, have been “messed with” at one time. This degree of messing ranges from light old cleanings to recoloring, to application of putty or other foreign substances to hide hairlines to massive reworking of the coin’s surfaces. What this means to the average buyer of United States gold coins: a caution flag waving in his face every time he makes a purchase.
Quite frankly if you are buying coins based on a sight-unseen basis or primarily through Internet-based auctions, it is inevitable that you are buying many problems coins; despite the fact that they are in PCGS or NGC holders. More than ever, it is essential for collectors to purchase coins through a knowledgeable, trustworthy dealer.
Tim L. Shuck
Coinbert - Aug 16, 2010 04:48 pm